IN DECIDING to call a very early election, WA Premier Alan Carpenter perhaps did not pay sufficient cognisance to the comparatively low vote for Labor at the federal election.
Labor in WA did not deliver for Kevin Rudd, and, as the vote unfolded last night, that momentum identified at the federal election is being repeated at the state level.
Clearly, as the Sunday Canberra Times went to press, Labor was suffering a significant swing against it. This looks likely to be sufficient to deliver government to Colin Barnett.
Preferences will play a significant role, but even with Greens preferences flowing to Labor, that may not be enough to save it.
And even if he doesn't quite get there, Colin Barnett would have delivered to his supporters a result far beyond the expectations of his party.
That both former leader Troy Buswell and Colin Barnett took the decisions they did will be seen both as a vindication and possibly a strategic master stroke.
This is an election that Labor should have won comfortably. The state is booming, revenue is pouring into the treasury, but the citizens are unhappy.
Too late in the day, Alan Carpenter acknowledged that his Government should have done better. It's all very well to boast about the massive resources sector, a magnificent new Mandurah to Perth railway line, new hospitals and sporting stadiums and a facade of wealth across the state.
But the reality is that the people don't believe that enough of the wealth of the state is being returned to them. And, as a consequence, they are now punishing the Labor Government.
Alan Carpenter will not be thanked by his party for his decision to go early to the polls, but especially they will not thank him for being ill-prepared for the campaign.
Labor had everything going its way, with the Liberal Party going through successive leaders and Troy Buswell having to stand down because of serial personal issues that were demonstrably harming his leadership and his party.
Taking all of these factors into account, the electorate has not so much endorsed the conservatives as told Labor they should have done better.
A very great irony in this campaign is that the state daily newspaper, The West Australian, editorialised in favour of Labor, despite the Government's criticism of the perceived bias of the newspaper against it.
With NSW Labor in trouble, and now WA on a knife-edge, the ALP at the state level is looking extremely vulnerable.